Growing Pains
The negative headlines on prediction market manipulation and insider trading are a good sign for the industry.
Scrutiny and controversy are growing pains. The negative narrative around the imminent shutdown of the prediction market are not only wrong but missing the immiment boom.
Further crackdown means malevalent players will be less willing to take a risk. Additional mechanisms will naturally be put in place that make the market less prone to manipulation. The stock market was full of insider trading early in its history. Not anymore.
This gives me more confidence that startups building for the prediction market will be the next breakout stars in venture.
These include companies that are trading on the prediction market using AI. Prediction market outcomes are the result of hidden information waiting to be discovered. The prediction market also generates continuous, incentive-aligned signals that eventually resolves into verifiable outcomes. Each resolution acts as both market feedback and a labeled training datapoint.